AI Overviews Have Taken Over HVAC Search: What Our Study of 512 Keywords Found

Why We Ran This Study

Google's AI Overviews now sit above traditional results for a growing share of searches. ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini and Copilot are answering questions that used to end in a website visit. For heating and cooling contractors, the practical question is simple: how much of your market's search behavior now runs through AI answers, and where does it actually change who gets the job?

Nobody had published numbers for the HVAC industry. So we measured it.

Methodology

In July 2026 we pulled 516 HVAC-related keywords from the Semrush US database across three groups:

1. Consumer service and equipment terms (345 keywords): repair, installation, and equipment searches such as "hvac repair near me", "heat pump vs furnace", and "furnace repair cost"
2. Marketing and agency terms (144 keywords): searches contractors use to find marketing help, such as "hvac seo services" and "hvac marketing agency"
3. Homeowner question searches (30 keywords): "how much does a new HVAC system cost", "how long do HVAC systems last", and similar

We measured AI Overview presence using Semrush SERP feature detection (feature code 52, verified against Semrush's published documentation). 512 keywords returned SERP feature data; 4 were excluded. The full dataset is available for download at the end of this article.

Finding 1: Nearly Two in Three HVAC Searches Now Show an AI Answer

Across all 512 keywords, 324 (63%) display an AI Overview above the traditional results. The keywords studied represent roughly 4.9 million monthly searches in the US. This is not a fringe change. For most HVAC-related searches, an AI-written answer is now the first thing a searcher sees.

Finding 2: Every Homeowner Question Gets an AI Answer

All 30 of the most-searched homeowner questions triggered an AI Overview. Every single one. That includes:

• "how much does a new HVAC system cost" (1,000 searches/month)
• "how long do HVAC systems last" (1,300/month)
• "what is HVAC" (27,100/month)
• "can you finance a new HVAC system" (3,600/month)
• "does homeowners insurance cover HVAC" (720/month)

These are the questions homeowners ask before they ever contact a contractor. The research stage of the customer journey is now answered by AI, above every website, ad, and map listing on the page.

Finding 3: The Customer Journey Has Split in Two

This is the finding that matters most for contractors. AI has taken over research searches but barely touched hiring searches:

AI Overview Presence by Search Type (US, July 2026)

Homeowner questions 100%

"how much does a new HVAC system cost"

Research and equipment 61%

"heat pump vs furnace", "hvac installation cost"

Local hiring intent 16%

"hvac repair near me", "furnace repair + city"

When someone is comparing heat pumps to furnaces, AI answers them. When they're ready to hire, Google still shows the Map Pack first, and industry research from BrightLocal shows the top three map listings capture a third or more of all clicks.

The practical conclusion: a contractor needs to be cited by AI during the research stage, so the brand is already familiar when the buying moment comes, and needs to rank in the Map Pack at the hiring stage, when 84% of local-intent searches still show traditional results. One without the other leaves half the journey to competitors.

Finding 4: The Industry's Own Buying Searches Are Almost Fully AI-Covered

Among the searches contractors themselves use to find marketing help, 89% now show AI Overviews (124 of 140 terms with data). If you've searched "hvac seo services" or "hvac marketing company" recently, an AI answer chose which providers to show you first.

Finding 5: AI Engines and Google Increasingly Recommend Different Businesses

We also tracked a typical buyer prompt, "what's the best SEO agency for HVAC contractors?", across Google and eight AI platforms (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Claude, Copilot, Grok, Google AI Mode, and Brave AI). The result:

• 45 businesses and sites appeared across all platforms
• 17 appeared in both Google's results and AI answers
• 19 were recommended by AI while not ranking in Google at all
• 9 ranked in Google but were never cited by any AI engine

Put differently: 53% of the sources AI engines cited did not appear in Google's results for the same search. The overlap holds at the very top, since 9 of Google's top 10 were cited by at least one AI engine, but below that, AI systems pull from different sources entirely.

Where the AI Engines Get Their Answers

The citation data shows a clear pattern in what AI platforms retrieve:

• Third-party "top agencies" list pages dominate. The most-cited sources across platforms were independent ranking and comparison pages, with one list page cited by 8 different AI platforms.
• ChatGPT favors case studies with specific numbers. Its top citations included case study pages with revenue and ROI figures in the title.
• A business's own service pages get cited mainly when they also rank top 3 in Google.

For contractors, the lesson transfers directly: the pages AI trusts are third-party lists, review platforms, and content with specific, verifiable numbers. Being present on the sources AI already cites matters as much as your own website.

What This Means for HVAC Contractors

1. Your Google Business Profile and reviews are now AI inputs. AI systems corroborate businesses across profiles, reviews, and citations before recommending them. The same fundamentals that win the Map Pack feed AI visibility.
2. Structured, factual content gets cited. Vague content doesn't. AI engines quote pages with clear answers, real numbers, and consistent facts.
3. The Map Pack is not going anywhere yet. With 84% of hiring-intent searches still showing traditional results, local SEO remains the highest-converting investment. AI visibility is additive, not a replacement.

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4. Get present on third-party sources. Directories, review platforms, and industry lists are what AI engines retrieve. Consistency across them matters.
5. Measure it. AI visibility can be tracked the same way rankings can. If your marketing reports don't mention AI answers yet, ask why.

Our HVAC SEO services build generative engine optimization into every campaign alongside Google Business Profile optimization and Map Pack work. If you want to know how your business currently appears across Google, the Map Pack, and AI answers, request a free audit and we'll show you. And if you are comparing providers on AI visibility, our roundup of the best HVAC SEO companies notes which agencies have caught up.

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